290729
290729
forskning
2017-01-11T11:31:00.000Z
en

Project

Prospects for Norwegian petroleum extraction and for the Norwegian economy as a whole

PROSPECTS will analyse the medium and long-run prospects of the Norwegian petroleum sector and its role for the economy as a whole. For this purpose, the first stage of the project identifies important factors that affect the extraction on the Norwegian continental shelf and their impacts. The second stage will look at the role of the Norwegian petroleum sector for the Norwegian economy as a whole. Among other questions, we will be able to say more about the petroleum-dependency of the Norwegian economy and the prospects for the economy as the petroleum extraction era is coming closer to an end.

Project details

Project manager
Taran Fæhn
Project participants

Kristine Grimsrud – Leader Work Package 1– SSB

Terje Skjerpen – Leader Work Package 2– SSB

Ole Røgeberg – Leader Work Package 3– The Frisch Centre

Lars Lindholt – Leader Work Package 4– SSB

Mads Greaker – Leader Work Package 5 – SSB

Bernt Bratsberg – The Frisch Centre

Knut Einar Rosendahl – SSB

Brita Bye – SSB

Rolf Golombek – The Frisch Centre

Finn Roar Aune – SSB

Halvor B Storrøsten – SSB

Torbjørn Eika – SSB

Joakim Blix Prestmo – SSB sluttet

Christoph Böhringer – University of Oldenburg

 

Partners

Petter Osmundsen – University of Stavanger

Clients

Research Council of Norway (RCN) - The PETROSAM2 Programme

Project term
2014-2018
Project status
Ongoing
Research field

About the Project

PROSPECTS will analyse the medium and long-run prospects of the Norwegian petroleum sector and its role for the economy as a whole. For this purpose, the first stage of the project identifies important factors that affect the extraction on the Norwegian continental shelf and their impacts. Petroleum prices (Work Package 1), rig rates (Work Package 2) and wage formation (Work Package 3) in the petroleum sector are among the factors we will focus on. We will also analyse current and alternative Norwegian policy regimes towards the petroleum industry and their possible impacts on the future size and profitability of the petroleum sector. The Arctic areas, both in Norway and Russia, will be given special attention to increase our understanding on main factors determining the development of the Arctic as an oil and gas arena (Work Package 4). 

In the next stage we will look at the role of the Norwegian petroleum sector for the Norwegian economy as a whole (Work Package 5). Among other questions, we will be able to say more about the petroleum-dependency of the Norwegian economy and the prospects for the economy as the petroleum extraction era is coming closer to an end. We will analyse domestic and foreign worker flows into and out of the petroleum sector to study whether the sector functions as an entry-port for high-skilled migrants, whose knowledge and skills the rest of the economy can benefit from - for example through job exchange to mainland industries. We will also study whether knowledge finds other channels of diffusion from the petroleum-related activities to other areas, where the interaction among domestic research and innovation activities, as well as the international trading and networking of Norwegian firms, may play important roles.

Presentations and meetings

May 22., 2017: Half-day seminar «Oil and restructuring». Three invited presentations shedding new light on various aspects of the Norwegian petroleum sector and the restructuring capacity of the economy: Taran Thune and Erlend Simensen, TIK: «Innovation in the oil industry – the role of the petroleum-related supply industry». Ådne Cappelen, SSB: «Migration and the Dutch disease». Drago Bergholt, Norges Bank: «Drop in oil prices – the impact on the Norwegian economy».

March 9. 2017: CREE-seminar, Statistics Norway, Oslo: Mads Greaker, moderator for the roundtable discussion on “How to spur green growth in Norway” (panelists: Camilla Moe - Statkraft, Daniel Spiro - Oslo and Akershus University College of Applied Sciences, Ane Torvanger Brunvoll - Norwegian Research Council, Michael Hoel - University of Oslo, Jan Bråten - Statnett, Sjak Smulders - Tilburg University).

March 8. 2017, University of Oslo: “The Outreach workshop of the second meeting of the Implications of Paris Research and Workshop Project” invites policymakers, business, organisations and researchers to discuss implications for Norwegian sectors of the Paris agreement on climate change. Norwegian oil and gas production is among the main subjects. The discussion will be summed up by Per Sandberg from Statoil, Audun Rosland from the Norwegian Environmental Agency and Taran Fæhn from Statistics Norway, project leader for PROSPECTS.

March 7. 2017: Technoport 2017 – open Statoil Conference, Trondheim. Subject: Rolf Golombek,  participant in the expert panel discussing “Energy transition to-low-emission petroleum and green technologies”

December 5, 2016: EU Joint Research Centre Modelling Workshop on The role of human capital and innovation in territorial impact assessment ,  Ispra, Italia. Subject: B. Bye: Innovative and absorptive capacity effects of human capital in a small open economy.

November 26, 2016: Transportation workshop at Statoil, Stavanger. Subject: K.M. Grimsrud. “PETRO2 oil market model at Statistics Norway—consequences for the oil market of improved efficiency in the transport sector”.

October 27, 2016: Petrosam2-seminar, RCN Lysaker. Subject: T. Eika: Labour mobility across borders, the petroleum sector and the economy as a whole. 

October 7, 2016: CREE Research Seminar, SSB. Subject: K.M. Grimsrud: "Petro 2 Global oil market model".

June 19-22, 2016: 39th IAEE International Conference NHH, Bergen. Subject: Lars Lindholt: “Phasing out coal for global electricity production – effects on Arctic gas deliveries”.

June 19-22, 2016: 39th IAEE International Conference NHH, Bergen. Subject: Skjerpen, T: Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf.

January 4, 2016: NTNU Trondheim: Subject: Skjerpen, T: Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf

October 27, 2015: Seminar SSB: Subject: B. Bratsberg: "Migrant labor in the Norwegian Petroleum Sector".

October 26, 2015: NTNU Trondheim PETROSAM2’s Annual Conference. Subject: J. Prestmo: Employment and labour in the oil and gas sectors.

May 2015: Seminar University of Milan. Subject: B. Bratsberg: "Migrant labor in the Norwegian Petroleum Sector".

May 2015: Seminar The Frisch Centre. Subject: B. Bratsberg: "The foreign workers in the Norwegian oil sector ".

May 2015: Seminar SSB. Subject: T. Skjerpen: "CO2-emissions related to Norwegian oil and gas Production".

May 2015: Seminar SSB. Subject: K Grimsrud og L Lindholt: "SSB’smodels for the petroleum markets".

April 2015: Meeting with the Programme Committee in Research Council of Norway. Subject: K. Grimsrud: Low-Carbon Policies and the oilmarket; Røgeberg, O: The labour in the petroleum sector. 

November 2014: Norwegian-Russian Research Conference PETROSAM2 AND NORRUSS. Subject:  Prestmo, J: Labour Migration and Dutch Disease; Results From a Large Scale Macro Model.

October 2014: Kick-off workshop of the PROSPECTS project SSB.

September 2014: Meeting with the Programme Committee in Research Council of Norway. Subject: Prospects for Norwegian Petroleum Extraction and Implications for the Norwegian Economy as a Whole.

January 2014: Kick-off meeting in Research Council of Norway for the new projects in PETROSAM2.

Publications

Aune, F.R., Bøeng, A.C., Kverndokk, S., Lindholt, L., & Rosendahl, K.E. (2017). Fuel Efficiency Improvements: Feedback Mechanisms and Distributional Effects in the Oil Market. Environmental and Resource Economics (2017). doi:10.1007/s10640-017-0134-7

Cappelen, Å., & Eika, T. (2017). Immigration and the Dutch disease; a counterfactual analysis of the Norwegian resource boom 2004-2013. (Discussion Papers 860). Statistics Norway, Research Department.

Lindholt, L., & Glomsrød, S. (2017). Phasing out coal and phasing in renewables - good or bad news for arctic gas producers? (Discussion Papers 856). Statistics Norway, Research Department.

Aune, F. R., Grimsrud, K., Lindholt, L., Rosendahl, K. E. &  Storrøsten, H.B. (2016). Oil consumption subsidy removal in OPEC and other non-OECD countries: Oil market impacts and welfare effects. (Discussion Papers 846). Statistics Norway, Research Department.

Skjerpen, T., Storrøsten, H.B., Rosendahl, K.E. & Osmundsen, P. (2015). Modelling and forecasting rig rates on the Norwegian Continental Shelf. (Discussion Papers 832). Statistics Norway, Research Department.

Gavenas, E., Rosendahl, K. E., & Skjerpen, T (2015). CO2-emissions from Norwegian oil and gas extraction. Energy, 90, Part 2, 1956-1966. 

Aune, F. R., ,Bøeng, A. C., Kverndokk, S., Lindholt, L. & Rosendahl, K. E. (2015). Fuel efficiency improvements - feedback mechanisms and distributional effects in the oil market, CREE Working Paper 11/2015.

Gavenas, E., Rosendahl , K. E. & Skjerpen, T. (2015). CO2-emissions from Norwegian oil and gas extraction. (Discussion Papers 806). Statistics Norway, Research Department.  

Cappelen, Å., Eika, T. & Prestmo, J. B. (2015). Oljeprisfallet gir ingen krise. Samfunnsøkonomen nr. 2/2015.

Osmundsen, P., Rosendahl, K. E. & Skjerpen, T. (2015). Understanding rig rate formation in the Gulf of Mexico. Energy Economics, 49, 430-439

Gavenas, E. & Rosendal, K. E. (2014). Hva påvirker CO2-utslippene på norsk sokkel? Samfunnsøkonomen nr 8/2014.

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