Regional population projections

Project details

Project manager

Stefan Leknes

Project status

Ongoing

Research field

• Population trends, migration and mortality

About the Project

Statistics Norway projects the population size and composition of Norwegian municipalities. This is one of Statistics Norway's ongoing tasks and is financed by the central government. Methodology and results are published on Statistics Norway's website. In addition, the results can be downloaded from the StatBank.

Regional population projections are a key tool in local planning. They are also used in other types of economic and demographic projections and are of interest to public authorities, the private sector and the general public.

In the regional projection model, the population development is determined by demographic components: fertility, mortality and migration (domestic and international). Assumptions on how the components vary regionally and will develop in the future are used in a cohort-component model, which then provides the regional population pattern for each projected year.

The regional population projections model is under continuous development. This effort involves exploration of alternative methodology and empirical research on topics related to the projections.

Publications

• Empirical Bayes estimation of local demographic rates

  Authors

  Stefan Leknes

  Sturla A. Løkken

  Published: 2020
• For whom are cities good places to live?

  Author

  Fredrik Carlsen and Stefan Leknes

  Published: 2019
• The paradox of the unhappy, growing city: reconciling evidence

  Author

  Fredrik Carlsen and Stefan Leknes

  Published: 2019